Riding Herd on the Financial Range - # 11
I ride away for a few days on my Harley and the world goes to S***.
6.23.2009
Howdy Folks,
Well don't know quite where to start. I leave for a few days to ride my Harley and clear my head and I come back and the world’s gone to s***.
First, the news seems to be centered on Iran and North Korea. Under Reagan these were two of the evil empires, but you know I have grown a little weary of why we have to be the world cops. I am all in favor of regime change when the people rise up as they have in Iran, and I don't believe for a minute that this is about elections.
Iran is run by the Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme cleric; the one who speaks directly to Allah, but is elected from the Assemble of Experts - 96 clerics who are elected by the electorate every 8 years. The Supreme One in turn appoints a 12 man guardian council (6 more clerics appointed by the Supreme One), and 6 jurists who are nominated by the judiciary whose leader is – you guessed it – also appointed by the Supreme One. As a ruling body it can hardly be assessed as independent.
It is important to know that it is this council that has to approve all bills out of Parliament, as well as having the power to veto any candidate to Parliament, local councils, the Presidency, etc. You get the picture. Oh, did I mention it is the Supreme One who controls the Army? The recent protest was initially over a fraudulent election result re-electing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to his second term as President over Mousavi. In and of itself, this alone would not have constituted news. They were both “preapproved” and put up as candidates by the Guardian Council.
Neither candidate is a friend of the United States, nor likely to have a different opinion on anything. So why should we care? Well, it looked a whole lot more interesting when the crowd started shouting from the roof tops "Death to the Ayatollah." Now you’re potentially talking about regime change as it was this cry that brought down the Shah. The other more personal response has been the lack of response from the United States in support of the demonstrators.
Our own Supreme One has chosen to not to be seen as meddling in Iran's affairs by doing anything or saying anything that would probably give rise to our promoting the demonstration; this would undoubtedly "hurt his chances for sitting down with whoever the President of Iran turns out to be" blowing another opportunity to dazzle the Iranian rulers (not to mention his global fans) with reasons why they should stop their nuclear program.
In my opinion, the thesis that Iran is going to give up its nuclear program is wholly misguided; Iran’s rulers are never going to give them up. President Barry’s Cairo speech said many of the right things about what this country stands for and has stood for in history, and many of those warrant being repeated to an attentive world audience as Iranians demonstrate in the streets. Our President didn't seem to have a problem sending Ol' Joe and Hillary to Lebanon a couple of weeks ago during their elections in support of the pro western government that managed to maintain its majority. And Hezbollah’s screaming about the blatant interference in the election process didn’t seem to bother the President.
Ol' Joe, not being shy about why he was there, said, "Lebanon has suffered terribly from war and we have a real opportunity now ... for peace." Following talks with President Michel Suleiman, Biden said "So I urge those who think about standing with the spoilers of peace not to miss this opportunity to walk away from the spoilers." By President Barry’s standard, isn't that meddling? Again, I think our lack of any endorsement whatsoever will doom the uprising, and our Supreme One will not get to the table either for this "act of appeasement." The source for this information was mostly from the BBC and Daily News.
As for the other whack job, the one in North Korea, the question is whether we, or rather the US Navy should board the ship they have been trailing since leaving North Korea. We have good reason to believe it has nuclear materials on board and is bound for somewhere where no good can come from the cargo. Kim Jong Il says to board would be an act of war and America will face some unspecified retaliation. The UN resolution only gives us the power to ask to board; if invited aboard I suppose we can drink some tea with the Captain. Given our experience with WMDs, maybe we should take a pass. However, given the media hoopla that’s been created, taking a pass gives the whack job a "win" over Uncle Sam. But really, do we care what North Korea thinks? Why don't we just wait to see where the ship is going and get the Israelis to take care of it. I vote “No” on taking any action in absence of information; especially in light of the fact our Commander in Chief had so much trouble deciding whether or not to shoot the pirates in Somalia. So is the US going to start something with North Korea? Not likely in my opinion.
On the cover up story on the $134.5 billion in US Treasuries found in a suitcase of two Japanese nationals crossing from Italy to Switzerland, there is still no confirmation of status from any government official so speculation continues. The only news breaking today was that there seems to be a picture of the space shuttle on the bonds, and since they were issued in something like 1934, one might be just a little suspicious. Another clue might be the fact that investigative reporting by Scripps Howard News suggests that the total value of the bonds exceeds those printed. So if they are in fact counterfeit as it appears they are, why wouldn't the Secret Service just say so instead of playing like they know nothing about it?
Harry Reid’s poll numbers came out today showing another drop; this time he hit a 34% approval rating. It would appear Barry's trip to Las Vegas and raising two million for his campaign isn't going to get him re-elected.(Source: USA Today)
Now, if we could just get Barry to go to San Francisco on a similar mission, maybe we would see the Queen drop out as well. Where is ACORN when you need them?
Oh, I almost forgot, Congressman Barney Frank submitted two bills to committee.
1. To decriminalize small amounts of personal marijuana under the "The Act to Remove Federal Penalties for the Personal Use of Marijuana by Responsible Adults" (bill "HR 2943", and secondly bill "HR 2835") titled "The Marijuana Patient Protection Act", or changing classification of drug to permit medical marijuana. You can search for the details of those bills here. http://thomas.loc.gov/
2. Now all this might be viewed as just fixing what is probably a non problem, but I’m am sure it has something to do with the revenuers wanting to raise taxes and reduce the federal prison population. Geez, why didn't someone else think of that? Oh, right they first did in the Great State of California. Bill Maher joked, "It's still illegal to grow it, it's illegal for doctors to prescribe it, it's illegal to sell it, it's illegal to buy it, but if a joint happens to fall from the sky into your lips, then it's OK to smoke it."
According to the Huffington Post, "The House bills do not override existing state law, on the possession and only applies to not-for-profit transfer of small amounts of marijuana. The bill would allow for possession of up to 100 grams of the substance, and not-for-profit transfer of up to 28.3 grams (1 ounce). The legislation would also create a $100 fine (a civil penalty) for public use of marijuana." This is probably a done deal, but stand by for more news to come.
Once again it’s been too much fun sharing this with you. Sadly, the bad news is the continued fall in the stock markets and the forecast for a 3% GDP contraction in the US of IOUs; thank you World Bank. I forecast this, but I still don’t like having to say, “I told you so.”
Your humble editor, Russ
About Russ Magarity
Jackson, Wyoming Distressed Patriot Russell Magarity and Chris Janelli, Chief Distressed Patriot, have been business associates and close friends since working together at Chase Manhattan Asia in Hong Kong. Russ grew up in Cuba and Panama and graduated from High School in Peru. He received a BA in International Relations from the University of Oklahoma (Norman), an M.B.A. from the Universidad Autonoma de Guadalajara (Mexico), and a Masters in International Management (with Distinction) from the American Graduate School of International Management(Thunderbird).
Russ spent his career with Chase running countries and managing corporate finance businesses in Brazil, Mexico, Hong Kong and throughout SE Asia. Prior to joining Chase, he served in the US Navy for 9 years first as a Midshipman and Naval Aviator. As a carrier pilot, he served 3 tours in Vietnam and flew over 250 missions
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